Azeri Flank: A Pyrrhic Victory?
A service member of the Russian peacekeeping troops walks by a tank near the border with Armenia, in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan, Nov. 10, 2020. (Reuters Photo)
By E. Degage
Over the past few months, Nagorno-Karabakh has been ravaged with artillery shells cratering the countryside, drones dropping deadly payloads on unsuspecting bunkers full of soldiers, and civilians, Azeri and Armenian alike, being displaced from their otherwise quaint homes. A three decades long conflict over land hotly contested by both Baku and Yerevan has again reached a violent and destructive cycle which has led to international outcry, and concerns grow from the immediate neighbors of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
On November 9th, Russia set a ceasefire to mediate between the two countries, which brought a lull to the intense fighting in the disputed territory, with Russian troops sent to monitor the region. How long this peace will last and if a pragmatic solution will come of this ceasefire is yet to be seen.
Azeri army troops pose with an Azeri flag, November 15, 2020. According to the freelance journalism site Unpopular Rear, the second to the left is holding up a Bozkurt symbol: A racist Turkish symbol typically associated with the fascist Grey Wolves. (E. Degage)
Before the ceasefire, Azerbaijan made many advances over the disputed regions, taking key cities outside of Stepanakert. Armenian campaigning wanted to show otherwise, but the grim reality is that Azerbaijan was gaining more territory than it was losing them.
Azeri troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, November 15, 2020. (E Degage)
There are a few key factors that contribute to the military situation in the region. Armenia in particular is heavily reliant on a defensive war taking place on mountainous terrain, with artillery guns pre calibrated from decades of planning. Azeri forces were tailored for offensive roles, buying new weapons and assets such as drones from Israeli companies. Lessons learned from their crushing defeat in 1994 could be a catalyst for the increased military spending.
GRAPHIC: Armenian militiamen crouching next to dead Azeri soldiers. One is holding an Azeri Army patch as a trophy. (C2 News)
Many political analysts claim that Russia’s concessions favoring President Aliyev may stem from the fact that the prime minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, has become more west leaning. The CTSO treaty protecting Russia’s former Soviet states including Armenia will not be acted upon until Armenian soil proper is attacked, as stated by Putin.
Unconfirmed reports of NATO forces, presumed to be American and clandestinely snuck in via Armenia as shown with the photographs below.
GRAPHIC: What appears to be a US SEAL and an Armenian militia member pose with a dead Azeri soldier. (C2 News)
Azeri troops in an entrenched position, November 14, 2020 (E. Degage)
Azeri troops in an entrenched position, November 14, 2020 (E. Degage)
As seen in the last photograph, there is a militiaman wearing an American flag patch and, comically, a CIA hat. The other soldier in question, however, appears to be wearing US Navy AOR1 camouflage, a desert pattern intended for use in arid regions by personnel operating in arid conditions. These uniforms and camouflages are used by US Navy SEALs, but whether or not this fighter is DEVGRU is unknown, as the uniform and gear may be easily commercial copies bought by a volunteer.
Such actions from Pashinyan, if proven to be confirmed, would result in less than favorable terms with Russia mediating the ceasefire, straining an already shaky relationship due to the shift to network with pro-western nations on Yerevan’s behalf. This, along with Azerbaijan’s continued gains in the Nagorno-Karabakh, may lead to further shift to Azeri demands than Armenian.
Russian Army peacekeepers at the Nagorno-Karabakh region. (Alexei Diaz)
Russian Army peacekeepers ordering a halt at the Nagorno-Karabakh region. (Alexei Diaz)
In any case, Russian peacekeepers will be placed in the Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh region until a full agreement is made and the troops will be able to depart. While on paper, Azerbaijan is making strides throughout the region, the loss of manpower on all sized paired with the displaced citizens seem to give the impression that the victor, whoever it may be, will have achieved a pyrrhic win. Putin’s ceasefire hangs precariously in the balance as the west leaning Armenian prime minister allegedly smuggled US forces in an attempt to stymie Azeri gains, despite arriving only as advisors and trainers for Armenian forces and militia factions. Less Azeri losses were incurred but the general loss of manpower and swathes of destroyed or captured weaponry will still be felt despite the veil of staunch nationalism each faction fronts.